第4回
システム創成学学術講演会
「社会デザイン －社会のレジリアンスと工学の役割－」
"Social Design: Contribution of Engineering to Social Resilience"
開催日：2012年5月11日（金）～12日（土）
場所：東京大学 工学部8号館 教授会室
主催：東京大学 工学系研究科 システム創成学専攻
共催：東京大学 工学系研究科 技術経営戦略学専攻
高度に文明化された社会は、自然のなかに多種・多様な人工物を増殖させてきました。それらの人工物がもの、エネルギ、情報、サービスといったリソースを社会のなかで様々な形で管理・運用して人々の生活を豊かにしています。社会というシステムが巨大になるにつれ、リソースを作り出し、移動させ、消費していく仕組みが複雑化し、そのふるまいやあるべき姿が見えにくくなっています。しかし、環境、エネルギ、資源の問題、金融危機、そして2011年3月11日に日本を襲った巨大地震・津波は、作り上げた社会のシステムが副作用として自然や未来に悪影響を与えていたり、経済活動や社会の安全を脅かす脆弱性を含んでいたりするということを、私たちに警告しています。この巨大で複雑な社会というシステムのふるまいを理解し、あるべき姿にデザインしていく、それがシステム創成学が目指すものです。
第4回目となるシステム創成学学術講演会では、IBM Almaden Research CenterのJim Spohrer博士、東京大学公共政策大学院の奥村裕一教授の招待講演をはじめ、「社会デザイン」に関わる内外の関係者の講演を中心に、社会のレジリアンスとそれに対する工学の役割について考えます。
皆様のご関心、ご参加をお待ちしております。
参加申込： event@sys.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp （講演会事務局）
”氏名、所属、連絡先、懇親会の出欠”を上記まで事前に申し込みください。
また入場無料、懇親会有料、当日の参加も可能です。
講演会プログラム
- 1日目 5月11日（金）
- 13:00 - 14:30 特別セッションⅠ 「社会デザイン」*
- 14:45 - 15:45 招待講演（Dr. Jim Spohrer）*
- 16:00 - 17:00 特別セッションⅡ 「社会デザイン」*
- 17:00 - 18:00 一般セッションⅠ
- 18:30 - 20:00 懇親会
- 2日目 5月12日（土）
- 09:00 - 10:00 一般セッションⅡ
- 10:05 - 11:05 招待講演（奥村裕一教授）
- 11:10 - 12:00 学生発表セッション**
* 英語講演のため、同時通訳を予定しております。
** 午後は専攻の入試説明会を開催します。
当専攻へ進学希望の学生さんは講演会・懇親会への参加を歓迎します。
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概要
Abstract
- Jim Spohrer（IBM Almaden Research Center） "Exploring the Future of Cities and Universities: A Tentative First Step"
- The future of cities and universities are intertwined, as universities become living-labs for cities. Cities and universities can be viewed as tightly-coupled complex adaptive systems through the lens of service science (SSME+D) and service-dominant logic (SDL). As part of our evolving pedagogical idealization, we model cities and universities as nodes in a nested, networked ecology of actors known as holistic product-service-system entities. Policy choices (such as winner-take-all and improve-weakest-link) can impact the relative ranking and measures of innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency of interconnected actors, such as nations, states, cities, universities, families, and individual people. We have begun to explore the impact of alternative policies on computed measures using a prototype world simulator based on our pedagogical idealization and the 4 I’s of regions (infrastructure, individuals, institutions, and information). This paper should be of value to researchers, educators, and practitioners searching for ways to adopt a more service-oriented perspective for exploring the future cities and universities.
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- 奥村裕一（東京大学公共政策大学院） 「デジタル時代における行政デザイン」
- 現代のデジタル時代は、身体活動の拡大を目指した産業革命とは根本的に質が異なる、頭脳活動、神経系、精神活動を拡大する情報流通革命の時代である。情報流通革命は、IT産業にとどまらず、およそ情報の流通するところ全ての分野で革命的変化が起りうる。革命の源泉は、情報の発信源が人からモノまで格段に拡がるとともに、その情報の自動処理力であり、情報の距離を超えた瞬時の共有力であり、飛躍的な情報分析力である。しかし、デジタル時代にも不変のものがある。それは自然の摂理であり社会の原理（突き詰めれば人間の本姓）である。このようなデジタル時代を前提にした社会活動、とりわけ新たな行政のデザインやその中での技術ガバナンスについて、その可能性と限界を諸国の例をひもときながら問題提起したい。
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- Kazuo Furata (Dept. of Systems Innovation) "Resilience Engineering for Safe and Secure Society"
- Having experienced natural disasters, accidents, economic crises, and so on, lay people are getting skeptical about technological approaches of risk management. The conventional approaches have not considered sufficiently how to manage residual risks that spill out of the design basis of a complex socio-technological system. Resilience, which means an ability of a system to absorb changes and disturbances in the environment and to maintain system functionality, is a key concept for resolving the above situation. In this talk, some relevant topics in resilience engineering will be discussed, the prehistory of resilience engineering, how system resilience can be evaluated and implemented, and some application examples.
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- Hideyuki Ando (Monohakobi Technology Institute) "Holistic Approach for Improving Energy Efficiency in Marine Transportation"
- Increasing trends of bunker prices and international
environmental regulations have made energy efficiency a key
concern in global marine transportation. To design and build
eco-ships and to reduce fuel consumption in operation are the
trends in all ship types.
To achieve further improvements in energy efficiency, holistic
approaches are necessary. It means that we need to see it as
a whole rather than parts. Information sharing, communication
and fair scheme are basis to make further progress.
Ship designers need to know actual performances of ships in
services and statistics of ship operations for optimum designs.
Ship operators and captains need to share weather risks based
on information sharing of weather prediction and ship
performance model for the best voyage planning and executions.
A case study and a future roadmap for optimizing container ship
operation and design are introduced.
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- Yoshihiro Masuda (Dept. of Systems Innovation) "Japan's energy security and social resilience"
- Japan's current account balance deteriorates after the March 11 disasters as we recorded a trade deficit of 2.56 trillion yen in 2011. The strong yen is a cause of this deficit, but the biggest factor is the increase in the import of mineral fuels. Import of mineral fuels jumped up to 21.82 trillion yen in value (25% increase over the previous year), accounting for 32% of the total value of imports to Japan. This is a bad economic situation, but is the result that we relied on nuclear sources for about 30 percent of its electricity before March 11. Now Japan’s commercial nuclear reactors were shut down and mineral fuels are helping us to compensate for lost power generation capacity. Under these circumstances we started to review the Basic Energy Plan to secure Japan’s energy future including the early implementation of renewable energy sources such as offshore wind power, geothermal energy, and photovoltaic power generation. There are two different approaches to think about the resilient structure of energy supply: One comes from the consumer side and another from the supply side. Current Asia’s economic growth and the production increase in shale gas (an unconventional gas) are changing energy supply flow in the world. This talk gives you a review on historical change in Japan’s energy supply structure and we would like to discuss where we should be sensitive in changing energy supply structure to strengthen the resilience of our society.
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- Kazuyuki Motonohashi (Dept. of Technology Manegement for Innovation) "Open and Global Innovation for Sustainability in Global Economy"
- Supply chain management and design played a vital role for sustainable business development. Supply chain of Japanese firms is characterized by the following two points. One is lean manufacturing system, which reduces stocks and inventory cost. Another is long-term relationship, which cultivates trust among firms and promotes intense collaborations. These have been regarded as the strength of Japanese industry. However, environmental change surrounding business requires us to reconsider them. For example, the disaster in eastern Japan damaged not only daily life in the region but also business activities outside that region because of disruption of supply chain. In this presentation, I illustrate how computational intelligence can support design of resilient supply chain. Network analysis and machine learning are used to model customer-supplier relationships, and a system to recommend plausible business partners are developed. I also discuss how computer science contributes to technology management for innovation through this case study.
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- 和泉 潔（システム創成学専攻） 「室内移動データ分析とエージェントシミュレーションによる空間デザイン」
- エージェントシミュレーションを安全な空間設計に用いた研究事例を紹介する．エージェントシミュレーションで一番重要なことは，エージェントの行動ルールをいかに現実の反映をさせながら，同時に汎用性をもたせるかということである．紹介する研究事例では，実際の人間の移動データからエージェントの移動ルールを抽出している．そのルールを用いて移動シミュレーションを行うことにより，レイアウトなどの環境要因と特定のリスクの関係を調べリスク評価を行っている．本稿では，家庭内の子供の転倒事故と手術室内のスタッフの移動に関する2 つの研究事例を紹介する．
- This talk introduces a new approach integrating the modeling of moving persons from sensor data and agentbased simulation for indoor layout design. First, we applied this framework to the prevention of children’s accidents. Our model focuses on interaction between indoor objects and children to estimate the risk of indoor accidents. Next, it was used for workflow analysis and layout design in an operation room. Finally, We discuss the agent-based simulation of multiple persons moving in public spaces and its application to evaluating information presentation for guidance.
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- 梶川裕矢（東京工業大学） "Design of Resilient Supply Chain supported by Computational Intelligence"
- Supply chain management and design played a vital role for sustainable business development. Supply chain of Japanese firms is characterized by the following two points. One is lean manufacturing system, which reduces stocks and inventory cost. Another is long-term relationship, which cultivates trust among firms and promotes intense collaborations. These have been regarded as the strength of Japanese industry. However, environmental change surrounding business requires us to reconsider them. For example, the disaster in eastern Japan damaged not only daily life in the region but also business activities outside that region because of disruption of supply chain. In this presentation, I illustrate how computational intelligence can support design of resilient supply chain. Network analysis and machine learning are used to model customer-supplier relationships, and a system to recommend plausible business partners are developed. I also discuss how computer science contributes to technology management for innovation through this case study.
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- 井原智彦（産業技術総合研究所） 「気候変動適応策設計のための都市熱環境のライフサイクル影響評価」
- 気候変動やヒートアイランド現象による大都市の気温上昇は、熱中症増や冷房エネルギー消費増など、さまざまな環境問題を引き起こしている。これらの環境問題はさまざまな時間・さまざまな場所で発生するが、気温低減方策はそれぞれ異なった時間・異なった場所で有効であるため、都市気温上昇のライフサイクル影響評価が必要とされている。ライフサイクル影響評価は、気温低減方策すなわち気候変動適応策の合理的な導入を助けるであろう。
- Urban air temperature rises in big cities by global climate change and urban heat islands are posing various environmental problems including increase in heat stroke, increase in energy consumption for air conditioning and so on. Life cycle impact assessment of the urban air temperature rises is needed because these environmental problems occur in different times and different places but every air temperature reduction measure is effective in different time and different place. Life cycle impact assessment will help reasonable installation of air temperature reduction measures such as climate change adaptation.
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- 村山英晶（システム創成学専攻） 「安全・安心な社会のための光ファイバセンサネットワークの利用」
- Risk caused by natural disasters in Japanese megacity, such as Tokyo and Osaka, is noticeable and it is increasing because of urbanization, climate change and aging of infrastructures. Although reinforcing and reconstruction of infrastructures play important roll to eliminate the risk, they will take a huge amount of money and energy. Recently, intelligence infrastructure with sensor networks is developed to mitigate the risk by natural disasters rather than eliminate it. Fiber-optic sensors are also developed to monitor various measurands on safe and secure and they can be a wide and reliable sensor network in the city by combining the fiber-optic communication network. In this talk, the development of disaster prevention information system with fiber-optic sensors will be introduced and the future vision of the city with the fiber-optic sensor networks will be provided.
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- 田中謙司（システム創成学専攻） "Improving Social Energy Systems with Secondary Batteries by Life-span Evaluation Model"
- Secondary batteries are now essential components for electric vehicles and smart grids which will become increasingly widespread in this decades, since batteries enables us to improve our energy system efficiency by managing electricity balance between demand and supply. Hybrid cars, for example, has risen by 50% with batteries. However, the complexity of the capacity fade mechanism of secondary batteries has been a technical barrier to their practical use. Users require long life grantee for batteries to justify their investment cost, though nobody can meet those needs for now. In order to proceed this economical issue, this study proposes a battery evaluation model of capacity fade for lithium-ion batteries, based on empirical data of charge and discharge experiment, and the survey of usage load conditions such as electric vehicle and stationary use. This paper discusses the availability of our proposed model by applying it to Li-ion battery data and show its effectiveness.
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- 定木 淳（システム創成学専攻） 「フィードバック系としての石油・天然ガス資源モデリング」
- 石油ピーク論は、「石油の生産量は、ピークを迎えたあと、急激に減少する」という悲観論である。実際、米国４８州の石油生産量が１９７０年ころピークを迎えたあと、減少したことから、世界の石油生産量がピークを迎えるという予想が何回かあった。しかし、その予想はすべて外れている。これに対して、資源ピラミッドと呼ばれる概念は、埋蔵量は可変であるとする楽観論と言える。本研究は、資源ピラミッドの概念に基づき、石油の埋蔵量と生産量をフィードバック系としてモデリングし、エリア別データにより検証を行なった。これにより、システムとしての石油・天然ガス資源の理解が深まったと言うことができる。なお、本研究は２年前の第２回システム創成学学術講演会における講演「複雑系としての石油・天然ガス資源」に着想を得て開始した点で、本第４回システム創成学学術講演会で発表することは意義があると考える。
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- 鳥海不二夫（システム創成学専攻） 「ソーシャルメディアにおける報酬による協調の進化」
- 近年，ソーシャルメディアの発達が目覚しく，FacebookやTwitterなど数多くのソーシャルメディアがWEB上で運営され，多くのユーザによって利用されている．一方で，ソーシャルメディアへの記事投稿にはコストが必要であるにもかかわらず，自発的に記事が投稿されるメカニズムは明らかとなっていない．本研究では，ソーシャルメディア上の投稿・コメントなどの行動を公共財ゲームの枠組みを用いて表現し，ソーシャルメディア上で自発的な投稿が達成される条件を明らかにする．
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- 和田大地（システム創成学専攻） "Development of optical fiber sensing technique for structural health monitoring"
- Monitoring of the integrity of structures, in other words, structural health monitoring, is becoming more and more important not only for the purpose of the safety assurance, but also for giving feedbacks for optimal design and use of structures as well as the efficient evaluation of the residual life of structures and the maintenance cost reduction. Optical fiber sensors offer new and effective measurement method to obtain useful information thanks to their unique advantages such as light weight, flexibility, electro-magnetic immunity, embedment capability and multiplexing capability for sensing points. We have developed the strain/temperature measurement technique based on optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR). This technique enables us to measure strain/temperature at an arbitrary location within the sensing range of the fiber. As a result we can observe strain/temperature distributions along the fiber. Monitoring strain distributions allow us to detect, even identify, the minor initial fracture of structures. The overloading detection, quality evaluation of manufactured parts will also become possible. In order to enhance this technique to meet requirements for field applications, we investigated a simultaneous strain and temperature measurement technique and a lateral load measurement technique utilizing the polarization property of propagating light.
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- Shuyi Wang（システム創成学専攻） "Agent-based modeling and simulation of financial markets"
- Decision making in an uncertain environment and price formation under the pressure of excess demand are two fundamental parts for the multi-agent modeling and simulation of financial markets. Based on the famous Minority Game (Challet and Zhang,1997), a new model for inductive reasoning is proposed in our study. The formulation of price formation is done by calibrating tick data of Shanghai Stock Exchange. Not only basic stylized facts of price fluctuation, such as fat tail and volatility clustering, but those higher order statistical properties, such as leverage effects (J. Shen and B. Zheng(a), 2009), are also expected to be recovered with these improvements.
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- Hao Wang（システム創成学専攻） " Collaborative Creativity Support System for Idea Discovery in the Early Stage of Product Design"
- In the dynamic and competitive market, enterprises have to timely launch new as well as creative products and services to fulfill the consumers’ demands for occupying much more market share. Therefore, most of them regard innovation as their strategic slogan. This paper presents a novel Web-based creativity support system named iChance for collaborative innovation based on Idea Discovery Model (IDM). iChance includes four main functional modules: (1) scenario-based innovation module, (2) idea/demand management module, (3) communication module and (4) system management module. The whole procedure of iChance applies Market Innovation Storming (MIS) approach. A case study on creative product design shows the effectiveness of iChance.
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